Victoria University Information Systems Consulting

Question: Examine about the Victoria University Information Systems Consulting. Answer: Presentation Scuba Booking System has been created to defeat the manual blunders and challenges in the strategy followed by Sub-Sea experience. The archive would center upon the client preparing necessities for the new framework. There would be five wide stages in the task viz. characterize, measure, dissect, improve and control. The staff that would be utilized to execute every one of these undertakings would incorporate Project Manager, Business Analyst, Consultants, Administrative Staff, Technical Support Staff, Helpdesk staff, Technical Writers and Trainers. Every one of the stages in the task would have various hidden sub-stages which would help in the more straightforward execution of every one of the progression and would likewise help in the better understanding for the supervisory group (Chittoor, 2012). Venture scope The essential point of the undertaking is convey a mechanized booking framework for Sub-Sea Adventures so as to conquer the manual blunders simultaneously. The business needs that would be tended to by the framework is have a simple to-utilize and a straightforward computerized framework set up. There would be various advantages that will be accomplished through the framework which are as depicted underneath: The blunders that the manual framework is inclined to will be overwhelmed by a computerized framework. The clients will be prepared on the new framework which would cause them to adjust to the progressions rapidly and furthermore see every single component of the equivalent. It would likewise assist the clients with gaining information on the plausible dangers and the measures to adjust if there should be an occurrence of an event of such an occasion. Progressing of the framework out of nowhere frequently prompts awkward clients which causes decline in profitability and productivity. Legitimate rounds of preparing would help in the evasion of such situations as the clients will have total lucidity of the framework. The undertaking would center after keeping up the most extreme clearness among the clients with an aim to clarify and talk about every one of the usefulness and highlight of the framework in best detail to leave no degree for the questions and disarrays. Venture approach The methodology that would be trailed by the venture would be the Sig Sigma approach which would be isolated in five key stages as: Characterize 6 days Measure 3 days Investigate and execute 12 days Improve 5 days Control 5 days There would be sub-stages in every one of the five stages. Characterize stage would be the underlying stage which would spin around the fundamental arranging that would be expected to comprehend the goals and point. The following stage would be the measure stage wherein the jobs and obligations of every coach would be evaluated according to the requirements of the clients and the quality of the equivalent (Umsl.edu, 2016). Investigate and execute would incorporate the real execution of the preparation program followed by the means to improve the equivalent and to give trainings to the clients who passed up a great opportunity prior. It would likewise incorporate the inquiry goals and a series of as often as possible posed inquiries. The last stage would be of checking and control which will incorporate the questions raised by the clients during the real involved the framework (Contentextra, 2016). Assets The individuals that would be essential during the task would incorporate the accompanying (Projectsmart, 2016): Task Manager Business Analyst Specialists Regulatory Staff Specialized Support Help-work area Specialized Writers Coaches The equipment necessities of the undertaking would include: Machine as tablet or a PC framework to run the application and that will be empowered with camera, speakers and receivers. An outside server of email/informing. Server to store the schoolwork. Server for the capacity of data around coach and understudy data. Various outside servers for distributing reason. Spending plan The general cost that would be spent on the undertaking would rotate around the two significant classifications as: Equipment Cost Individuals Cost The whole financial plan for the task would come out to be AU$22500. Income Venture plan Venture start date: twentieth June 2016 Venture end date: 25st July 2016 Venture term: 26 days (Gantt.com, 2016) References Chittoor, R. (2012). Six Sigma and Project Management. [online] Project-Management.com. Contentextra, (2016). Gantt.com. (2016). What is a Gantt Chart? Gantt Chart Information, history and Software. Projectsmart, (2016). Umsl.edu. (2016). Venture Management: Tools Techniques.

Traumatic Shoulder Injury Rugby Union Health And Social Care Essay

Delegated a hit sports by numerous athleticss sawboness the idea of Rugby Union results in nearly high paces of horrible damages contrasted with different athleticss ( Sundaram et. al 2010 ) . Epidemiologic Injury Incidence Rates ( IIR ) show that members who miss in any event 24hrs of sports scope from 69-218 occurrences for each 1000hrs of dramatization, with progressively genuine IIRs being recorded each piece as often as possible as 13.26-13.95/1000hrs ( McManus et al. 2004, Garraway et Al. 1995 ) . New Australian epidemiological research of a major companion of 1475 rugger members over all degrees of rivalry ( School kid, novice, foundation, proficient ) have discovered that 14-28 % of whole rugger harms include the upper appendage ( McManus et al 2008, Usman 2012 ) , explicitly 66 % or an IIR of 13.12/1000hrs happening to the shoulder enunciation with damages, for example, ; Anterior Dislocations and breaks ( Usman et al 2012 ) .These upper appendage harms have been related wit h the longest clasp out of dramatization, evaluated as multiple matches/28days or more, in the Australian review ( Usman et al 2012 ) . The entirety of this data demonstrates that upper appendage harms have a truly elevated pervasiveness in the sports and are other than rather crippling. In contrasting with IIRs related with rugger members, everybody paces of Anterior disturbance are each piece low as 1.7 % ( Boone 2010 ) .Considering this dissimilarity in measurable occurring between the 2 populaces, the incapacitating idea of this hurt to rugby members and the way that it is incredibly liable to appear in a physical issue puting I have decided to focus the parity of this exposition on Anterior Dislocations of the shoulder.Anatomy and MechanismsPrior to talking the system of hurt engaged with this rugger related pathology, it is of import to first determine what establishes the typical anatomical developments of the shoulder articulation.Normal AnatomyThe shoulder explanation takes into consideration the most expanded extents of movements ( ROM ) in the full natural structure, due predominantly to the structure of the GlenoHumeral Joint ( GHJ ) composite. This huge opportunity of movement relies upon stableness of the joint to remain dynamic and is accomplished by the idle and dynamic stabilizers: Dormant stabilizers incorporate ; the glenoid labrum which builds the otic contact nation by up to 50 % , the extraneous coracoacromial curve and inherent tendons connecting the humeral caput and the shoulder bone. Dynamic stabilizers incorporate ; the rotator turnup musculuss referred to together as SITS. Supraspinatus, Infraspinatus, Teres Minor and Subscapularis. The GHJ and its related developments are innervated by the suprascapular, sidelong pecs and alar nervousnesss. The two gatherings referenced above work in simultaneousness to keep up the humeral caput in close explanation with the glenoid pit and flexibly significant stableness so as to gracefully a typically working verbalization. ( Moore et al. 2009 )Mechanism of InjuryAs rugger is a hit sports with a few members at fast ordinarily associated with any one episode, it is extremely hard to decide one distinct instrument of hurt. When addressed members are habitually dark within informations of the system, yet it is accounted for that contact ( for example tackle condition of affairss ) is answerable for 70 % of GHJ harms ( Usman et al 2012 ) with foul show only being liable for 6 % ( Crichton et al. 2012 ) .This is nothing unexpected as handling has been demonstrated to be a significant segment of the game with around 330 occurrences for each game ( Sundaram et al 2010 ) . Eccentrica lly by the by embraced when estimated with the use of power tablets does non practice a high bounty power to do damage to the developments in the shoulder. Usman et Al ( 2011 ) estimated appropriate procedure tackle powers using predominant and non-prevailing shoulders both in the lab and on the field. The discoveries exhibited that endeavor just delivered a large portion of the aggregate of power important to do horrendous mischief to the shoulder. Along these lines there is more components to the system of GHJ hurt than simply power through endeavor altogether. Along these lines surveies have made utilization of picture investigation to reconsider a major base of GHJ harms so as to set up an instrument of hurt. It was discovered that there are three old style places ( c. f. reference section I ) in which GHJ happens in rugger ; The attempt scorer: jumping and making with the arm flexed above 90A ° Tackler: Abducted arm driven behind the member with a following back power Direct Impact: Impact to bear from hit or land. Somewhat flexed or indifferent with some interior rotational movement ( Crichton et al 2012 ) The Try-scorer and tackler were the most widely recognized gatherings for labral and humeral caput harms occurring in Antereoinferior GHJ interruptions, as the caput of the humerus is influenced by a switch activity from power transmitted through the arm in an inappropriate spot ( Crichton et al 2012 ) . This shows it is non undertaking that is the reason for hurt however more so off-base procedure during a tackle or in contact with the land. The start of this ill-advised strategy is probably going to be because of tire occurring during the game. Handling was demonstrated to be an exhausting action as less power was delivered with each tackle rehash when estimated ( Usman et al. 2011 ) Fatigue has other than been appeared to hold a negative result on an athlete ‘s propioception or joint spot sense ( JPS ) . As exhaustion expansion mechanoreceptors around the GHJ musculuss can non precisely depict JPS. Thusly during contact the muscle head will non hold their GHJ in the ideal sp ot to retain the power resulting in hurt, for example, those depicted above from less strong handling ( Herrington 2008 and 2010, Sundaram et al 2010, Usman et al 2011 ) .Repetitive over-burdening of the inert stabilizers through wrong endeavor strategy can other than do inadequacy of the GHJ taking to small scale injury over clasp lastly sprain/separation of the joint ( Goldberg et al 2003 ) .Other peril factors that have other than been demonstrated to loan factors incorporate ; achievement, playing experience, hardware, old damages, playing spot and level of rivalry ( Usman et al 2011 )PathoanatomyIn Antereoinferior GHJ disengagements the humeral caput is constrained down through the insufficient second rate container and anteriorly because of the boney squares of the acromial procedure, coracoid system and its tie ining tendon following in a total tear and burst of the case in many occasions. Similarly great as the ligamentous case hurt there is other than related mischief to bo th delicate tissue and bone ( Thomas et al 2007 ) . Concerning delicate tissue injury the most well-known pathoanatomy of delicate tissue is a Bankart sore ( Boone et al 2010 ) . This is a withdrawal of the anteroinferior Labrum and Inferior GH tendon with a farther 50 % of these appearing with related break of the Anterior edge of the glenoid pit ( Boone et al 2010 ) . Both of these happen when the humeral caput is constrained out of the pit during interruption. In the event that non treated nicely, these injuries will take to a constant flimsiness in the practiced shoulder, taking to repetitive interruptions as is seen in 21.5 % of frequencies during the principal lucifer after come back to play ( Usman et al 2012 ) . Perpetual interruptions are regular in rugger because of a figure of elements, for example, early come back to play, non-careful intercession with stableness and different elements referenced above in systems. Repeat causes the figure of developments included and the disagreeableness to expand dramatically.The figure of Anterioinferior labral injuries expansion ( Doo-sup et al. , 2010 ) , Osseous Bankart sores other than increment up to 56-86 % with enduring dislocators joined with a 67-100 % likeliness of other than holding a Hill-Sachs break ( Boone et al. , 2010, Beran et al. , 2010 ) . Slopes Sachs sores happen on the postereo-horizontal caput of the humerus as it impacts on the glenoid pit.PresentationHistoryOn appearing to An and A ; E the patient will more than most likely portray one of the three situations above, saying that their arm was stole and remotely pivoted at the clasp of contact. They will other than portray to holding felt a tactless act and â€Å" dead † s houlder after the occurrence ( Goldberg et al. , 2003 ) . The other boss side effect appearing with a disconnected shoulder are awful harming and decreased extent of signal. The patient will other than keep their arm watched in little snatching and outer turning motion.ExaminationExpression: The patient will hope to hold tiny ROM while discasing. The shoulder will look â€Å" squared off † with loss of deltoid shape. Feel: The humeral caput is substantial anteriorly in the subcoracoid part. It is other than of import to contrast respective outspread throbs with oversee out vascular hurt and to demonstrate the alar nervus in the ‘regimental identification mark ‘ over the deltoid reciprocally. Move: Active movement ; the patient can't complete Apley ‘s scraped spot preliminary, for example contact inverse shoulder, inverse shoulder bone, back of the cervix. In Passive movement the patient will challenge kidnapping and inner rotational movement. Creative mind: This must be never really out differential diagnosings of clavicular or humeral breaks. A shoulder injury arrangement ought to other than be requested Pre and Post decline. An AP or alar X raies are the most reasonable for Anterior interruptions. Post decline motion pictures are profoundly of import as 37.5 % of breaks such Hills-Sachs are seeable that would hold been missed Pre-decrease. ( Thomas et al. 2007 )Treatment and RecoverySuitable absense of pain and musculus relaxants ought to be chosen, by the by intra-articular infusions of lignocaine have been related with less inconveniences and diminished girdles than conventional IV sedative absense of pain ( Wakai et al 2011 ) . The accompanying measure is to immediately chop down the shoulder, as a fruitful decline is typically connected with an articulated dec

Lab Report on Ideal Gas Law Essay Example

Lab Report on Ideal Gas Law Paper We at that point emptied the water once again into the test tube and put the cylinder into the container with the opening upwards, turning the open end downwards after the cylinder was completely lowered underneath he surface. We at that point put the canister legitimately beneath the opening of the test tube, and discharged the gas so the air pockets rose into the test tube. Next, we utilized a plug whose head was bigger than the opening of the test cylinder to close off the opening (without changing the weight within the cylinder), so we could move the rest of the water to a graduated chamber. While doing this, it was significant that the water level within the cylinder was equivalent to that of the encompassing water in the container, since that guaranteed that since the eater pressure in the cylinder was equivalent to that of the encompassing water, the weight of the gas would be equivalent to that of the encompassing air. In this way, we recorded the gas strain to be equivalent to the weight in the room, which was determined to be 763. 0 meg. We poured the rest of the water from the test tube into a graduated chamber to figure the contrast between the first water volume and the volume remaining, in light of the fact that this distinction was equivalent to the volume of the gas discharged. Next, we blow-dried and shook the canister to get free the additional mass that would eave been included by any water that had clung onto it while it was in the container, and gauged the canister once more. We deducted this mass from the first mass of the canister to discover the mass of gas discharged. We will compose a custom paper test on Lab Report on Ideal Gas Law explicitly for you for just $16.38 $13.9/page Request now We will compose a custom article test on Lab Report on Ideal Gas Law explicitly for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Recruit Writer We will compose a custom article test on Lab Report on Ideal Gas Law explicitly for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Recruit Writer Since we had gathered our information, we utilized Talons law of incomplete weights to figure the weight of the gas from the canister alone, so we deducted the weight of the water fume at the recorded water temperature (1 5. ICC) from the absolute weight of the gas (763. 0 meg). With the weight of the obscure gas solitary, we were prepared to plug our qualities into the IV=nor condition. Understanding for n, we had the option to decide what number of moles of the gas we had utilized, so we just needed to partition the mass of gas utilized by the moles to ascertain the molar mass of the gas (in grams per mole). With the molar mass of the gas, we had the option to distinguish the gas. 2. Results: Below are the qualities we recorded for each progression in the test, just as the figurings we made to think of the molar mass of the obscure gas. In this manner, the obscure gas was butane, CHICHI, whose molar mass is around 58. G/mol. 3. Conversation: The hypothesis behind our test was to locate every vital factor in the least complex, most precise way. The most troublesome part was making sense of how to get the entirety of the gas that we discharged, and to gauge the volume of that gas decisively. The strategy we utilized was successful in light of the fact that we had the option to see the development of the gas, and we were along these lines ready to control its entrance into the test tube. Our outcomes were entirely precise, yet there was some space for blunder. The following are the computations for the percent mistake of our molar mass variety. A portion of the wellsprings of mistake originated from conceivable procedural issues, while others came because of the hypothetical restrictions of the test. One of the procedural troubles we may have experienced was that there may have despite everything been some water left on the canister when we gauged it the subsequent time. Since the second mass of the canister would have the additional mass of the water, the distinction between the first mass and the mass after the gas had been discharged would have been littler. In this manner, we would have recorded a lower ass of gas discharged, so the molar mass count would have been lower on the grounds that the numerator of the condition would have been littler. Maybe we could have blow-dried the canister for a more drawn out timeframe until we were certain beyond a shadow of a doubt that no water remained. Another procedural issue was the equalization we utilized. Since it just measures to the hundredths spot, we recorded the mass of the gas discharged to just a single noteworthy figure. Along these lines, we were constrained to just a single noteworthy figure in our computation of the molar mass, so despite the fact that we would have had an answer of 52. G/mol, we needed to adjust down to 50 g/mol, which prompted a more prominent percent mistake. The hypothetical troubles emerged in light of the fact that we were applying the perfect gas law to a genuine gas. Along these lines, for instance, while perfect gas particles have flexibility and dont lose speed or vitality when they impact, the particles of a genuine gas do lose vitality and speed, and this reduction prompts lower pressure. Additionally, perfect gases don't have any intermolecular powers, and the volume of the particles of a perfect gas can be overlooked, yet with a genuine gas, the molecule size has any kind of effect. Since butane particles are so huge ND exist in a state exceptionally near fluid structure, we realize that there are solid scattering powers holding the atoms together. Bigger atoms have progressively transient dipoles, and along these lines a more grounded fascination, so in light of the fact that the particles are held so near one another, the volume we recorded was littler than it would have been if butane were a perfect gas. Nonetheless, in spite of these blunders, our determined molar mass was not extremely distant from the real molar mass of butane gas, so we did a generally great job of controlling these factors that could have incredibly influenced our outcomes.

NUTRITIONAL ASSESSMENT FOR THE ELDERLY - 275 Words

NUTRITIONAL ASSESSMENT FOR THE ELDERLY (Term Paper Sample) Content: NUTRITIONAL ASSESSMENT FOR THE ELDERLY Student's name Code+ course name Professor's name University name City, State Date Nutritional Assessment for the Elderly The 10-item Eating Assessment Tool (also called EAT-10) is a self-administered questionnaire meant for dysphagia screening, having every item score from 0-4. The EAT-10 was developed specially to solve the clinical demands for quick, self-administered and initial score questionnaire for assessing the gravity of dysphagia symptoms. Also, it has been validated to have outstanding criterion-based validity, consistency and testretest reproducibility. First, EAT-10 is independently linked with the nutritional state once adjusting for age, setting and gender. Second, the EAT-10 score is independently related to nutritional status and activities of daily living (ADL) after adjusting for age and sex (Dutton, 2012). The EAT-10 was linked to a nutritional condition in the elderly in need of long-lasting care once following the adjustment for age, background and gender. Contributors of adult malnutrition associated with the chronic ailment, injury, or social and ecological situations. These factors can similarly play a significant role in disease-related sarcopenia and etiology of nutrition, and cause sarcopenic dysphagia in elderly persons in need of lasting care. Thus, nutrition assessment is crucial for elderly people demanding long-term care with EAT-10 score à ¢Ã¢â‚¬ °Ã‚ ¥ 3, irrespective of the setting (Dutton, 2012). According to Dutton (2012) studies, the advantage of the EAT-10 is that it is quick self-a...

Defense and Security

The House on Mango Street by Sandra Cisneros - 766 Words

I am writing a literary analysis on â€Å"The House on Mango Street† by Sandra Cisneros. This story takes place in the center of an over populated Latino neighborhood in Chicago, a city where many of the poor areas are ethnically segregated. This novella uses two main symbols shoes and trees. Later in the literary analysis I will explain what these mean to the main characters. There are three main characters in the novella Esperanza, Sally and Nenny (short for â€Å"Magdalena†). The House on Mango Street tells the life of Esperanza over a years’ time. Over the course of the year, Esperanza became more mature sexually and emotionally. She is determined to break free from the abuse of Mango Street to have a place of her own, but soon has a strong feeling of responsibility towards the people in her community. In the literary analysis I will be breaking down the Character, symbols and theme to give you a better look into the lives of the characters on Mango Street. The characters of The House on Mango Street include Esperanza the narrator, her family and her many friends and neighbors. In this literary analysis I will be analyzing the main three, Esperanza, Sally and Nenny. In The House on Mango Street a year goes by and Esperanza matures. She begins growing into a young woman. More people see her as a lady and not and innocent child. She also develops a sexual desire for some of the neighborhood boys. Emotionally she feels the desire for love. Although, her sexual desire becomesShow MoreRelatedThe House On Mango Street By Sandra Cisneros1132 Words   |  5 Pageslives. In the collection of short stories, The House on Mango Street, by Sandra Cisneros, she focuses on a young Hispanic girl named Esperanza Cordero who grew up on Mango Street. As she is changing and maturing, she writes down her experiences about discrimination of gender, sexual orientation, and more. Esperanza s transformation from a young and innocent girl to a mature woman is displayed through her self-realization and experiences that help Cisneros reveal how one s own experiences can lead toRead MoreThe House On Mango Street By Sandra Cisneros1297 Words   |  6 Pagesto think of a story to create, most of the advice given to them is â€Å"write what you know.† This was perfect advice for Mexican-American writer Sandra Cisneros, who draws upon her coming-of-age events throughout her childhood and adolescence in â€Å"The House on Mango Street.† Drawing from life stories, her alter ego â€Å"Esperanza† describes everything from the house she lived in, to the hair on people’s heads. These personal stories show a stark contrast for any reader of a different culture, and confirmRead MoreThe House On Mango Street By Sandra Cisneros913 Words   |  4 Pagesvignettes that made up â€Å"The House on Mango Street†, a coming-of-age novel by Mexican-American writer Sandra Cisneros. Cisneros in this specific vignette reveals th e inherent oppressiveness of all marriages, which by their nature rob people of their independence. Sally is not even eight grades and she gets married. Her husband is a marshmallow salesman that she meets at a school bazaar. She moves to another state where is legal their marriage. Sally tells Esperanza about her house and domestic objects thatRead MoreThe House On Mango Street By Sandra Cisneros1854 Words   |  8 Pages The Street That Changed a Life The House on Mango Street, by Sandra Cisneros, displays a great emphasis on culture and people helping form a young girl into a young lady. The main character, Esperanza, has to navigate a mentally and physically challenging life growing up in a poor, Hispanic neighborhood while still learning how to mature and rise above the poverty that surrounds her. Thus, the question arises: in what way and to what extent does close human interaction change Esperanza’s lifeRead MoreThe House On Mango Street By Sandra Cisneros886 Words   |  4 PagesThe House on Mango Street is a novel by Sandra Cisneros. The novel is acclaimed by critics and used in schools all around the world. â€Å"The House on Mango Street† is about a young Latina girl who is about the age of 12 when the novel begins. Sandra’s novels have sold over two million copies. Sandra was born on December 20, 1984, in Chicago, Illinois. In 2016, President Barack Obama presented her with the medal of ‘Nat ional Medal of Arts’. Title: The House on Mango Street Author: Sandra Cisneros TheRead MoreThe House On Mango Street By Sandra Cisneros2004 Words   |  9 PagesIn The House on Mango Street, by Sandra Cisneros, twelve-year-old Esperanza Cordero must navigate through the trials and tribulations that one can associate when encountering young adulthood. The author Cisneros, utilizes her unique writing style of vignettes to illustrate the narrative voice of Esperanza in her text. A major theme that can be seen as the most prominent thus far, is on the feminist role of Esperanza as a female in her Latin American culture. The House on Mango Street is an overallRead MoreThe House On Mango Street By Sandra Cisneros753 Words   |  4 PagesWhen you look at the cover of the book, The House on Mango Street, you see bright colors and a fun font. The first vignette that Sandra Cisneros writes is about Esperanza, a young Latino girl wishing that she had her own house, a house with trees and white fences. The way that Cisneros writes screams â€Å"little girl.† Howe ver, as you dive deeper into the book, the subject of each vignette gets darker. Slowly, we start to see the dangers of growing up as a young Latino girl in a Chicago neighborhoodRead MoreThe House On Mango Street By Sandra Cisneros1688 Words   |  7 PagesThe House on Mango Street, a novella by Sandra Cisneros, revolves around the idea of a developing Latino girl facing the difficulties of transitioning to a young mature woman. Esperanza moves into a house on Mango Street, where she meets many diverse influential people as she attempts to discover her true identity and understanding of the world. While doing this, she encounters the struggles of her community, socioeconomic class, and heritage. Esperanza’s opposing view of herself slowly adjusts asRead MoreThe House On Mango Street By Sandra Cisneros1087 Words   |  5 PagesRiaz Salehi The House on Mango Street by Sandra Cisneros, portrays the life of a teenage girl named Esperanza living on Mango Street. Though Esperanza lives in a diverse city, pre-existing stereotypes are affecting how others(women?) are perceived and treated. Esperanza starts to see how to change her community and the negative view of herself by taking the wrong actions of other women and connecting them to her own life experiences. To begin with, Esperanza always saw this great distinctionRead MoreThe House On Mango Street By Sandra Cisneros2190 Words   |  9 Pagessociety centuries after its foundation. One of the books I feel perfectly touches on ethnicity in America specifically is Sandra Cisneros The House on Mango Street. Cisneros tells a coming of age story through brief episodes of a girl named Esperanza her life varying from things about her family, neighborhood, and different dreams and goals that she has. The House on Mango street is a personal and touching look at what it means to be a minority/immigrant in America as well what it means to grow up

Decision Tree free essay sample

Despite this trend surprisingly few good, clear introductions to basic decision tree concepts are available. The present work attempts to meet that need by offering a concise primer for novices. Acknowledgments The author gratefully acknowledges instructor Meryl Natches, CEO of TechProse, for invaluable editing, guidance, and patience. The author also thanks the Technical Communication 1 class participants at UC Berkeley Extension during the spring semester 2007 for review and comments. Rosana Francescato tested the material for clarity and provided helpful feedback in the development of this project. CJ Kalin, Ph. D. , introduced me to the decision tree method in a Project Risk Management class at UC Berkeley Extension. Her real-world examples demonstrated how the decision trees technique helps solve complex project management problems. Despite the aforementioned contributions the author accepts responsibility for any errors or omissions herein. A decision tree is a method you can use to help make good choices, especially decisions that involve high costs and risks. Decision trees use a graphic approach to compare competing alternatives and assign values to those alternatives by combining uncertainties, costs, and payoffs into specific numerical values. If you are a project manager, business analyst, or a project decision-maker, this primer is for you. If you are interested in cognitive science, artificial intelligence, data mining, medical diagnosis, formal problem solving, or game theory, this primer provides an introduction to basic concepts of decision tree analysis. 1. 1 Advantages of using decision trees Decision trees offer advantages over other methods of analyzing alternatives. They are: †¢ Graphic. You can represent decision alternatives, possible outcomes, and chance events schematically. The visual approach is particularly helpful in comprehending sequential decisions and outcome dependencies. †¢ Efficient. You can quickly express complex alternatives clearly. You can easily modify a decision tree as new information becomes available. Set up a decision tree to compare how changing input values affect various decision alternatives. Standard decision tree notation is easy to adopt. Revealing. You can compare competing alternatives—even without complete information—in terms of risk and probable value. The Expected Value (EV) term combines relative investment costs, anticipated payoffs, and uncertainties into a single numerical value. The EV reveals the overall merits of competing alternatives. Complementary. You can use decision trees in conjunction with other project management tools. For example, the decision tree method can help evaluate project schedules. †¢ †¢ 1. 2 About this primer This primer offers an introduction to basic decision tree analysis. After studying this material for an hour, most users will be able to understand and apply decision tree analysis to solve simple and even moderately complex decision problems. You can readily construct and analyze simple decision trees such as those found in this primer with pen, paper, and a calculator. However, a spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel can dramatically facilitate setting up and modifying decision trees. A number of other software applications are also available. These range from low-cost Microsoft Excel plug-ins to more expensive dedicated applications. For the purposes of this primer, a pen, paper, and calculator are sufficient. 1 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 1. 3 To use this primer You can use this primer in several ways. If you prefer to get started immediately with drawing and using decision tree notation, then begin with the Decision Scenario, an exercise that puts you in the role of using a decision tree in step-by-step fashion. If you are more comfortable learning by first seeing how a process works, then start with Basic Concepts. Whichever way you begin, make sure to review both of these sections. The Glossary defines underlined terms. After you review the concepts and use the scenario exercise, you can find external references in More to Explore. Icons indicate items of special interest: †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ Example Exercise Note Tip 2 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 0 Decision Scenario Consider the following scenario. Really Big Ideas, Inc. a small company that develops inventions for the consumer market, has recruited you as a consultant to make a recommendation on a critical business decision. At 10:00 a. m. , you meet Adam Smith, the Vice President in charge of product development. Smith expresses his wish for an outside opinion on a decision the company must make soon. Your job is to supply such an informed opinion. Smith tells you that a short meeting will pr ovide all the information needed and introduce the project managers for two possible (and competing) products. As Smith ushers you into a conference room he also mentions that he expects your analysis by 11:00 a. m. , scarcely an hour from now! You are given pen, paper, and a calculator. At 10:05 a. m. , you and Smith enter a small meeting room. Smith explains that Really Big Ideas has a three-month window of opportunity to develop a new product using new pattern recognition software the company recently created. Surprisingly, the software adapts easily to different applications. Really Big Ideas only has the resources and time to develop one of two projects, or to develop none. Project Managers Aisha Ali and Ben Bertrand arrive. After brief introductions, Aisha Ali launches her pitch. She says that a smoke and fire detector is the best project to make. The detector goes beyond ordinary smoke detectors. It can detect flames as well as smoke. It will cost $100,000 to develop, and if it succeeds the Business Analysis department says it will generate revenue of $1,000,000. Not to be outdone, Ben Bertrand announces that a motion detector device is the best project to develop. The motion detector, which uses conventional household lighting, will only cost $10,000 to develop. He adds that the analysts expect such a device to generate $300,000 in revenue. Smith asks if you have any questions, so you carefully ask about the chances for success. Both project managers agree that Samiksha Singh, the Director of the Business Analysis department, has that information. Smith initiates a conference call with Samiksha Singh. Singh informs the meeting that the smoke and fire detector has a 50% chance of success, and that the motion detector has an 80% chance of success. Smith thanks all the participants and ends the meeting. It is now 10:30 a. . Smith announces that he’ll return within the hour to see if you have decision analysis. Smith leaves you with your notes, paper, pen, and a calculator. Can you help Really Big Ideas to decide which product, if either, to develop? How can you evaluate the alternatives in a measurable way given the various uncertainties involved? You can use a decision tree to describe and then to evaluate the decision alternatives. 3 D ecision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 1 Describe decision alternatives and outcomes You can now start your decision tree. A decision tree is a diagram of nodes and connecting branches. Nodes indicate decision points, chance events, or branch terminals. Branches correspond to each decision alternative or event outcome emerging from a node. 2. 1. 1 The first decision (root node) Start by drawing a small square on the left side on a piece of paper. This is called the root node, or root. The root node represents the first set of decision alternatives. For each decision alternative draw a line, or branch, extending to the right from the root node. Allow a generous amount of space between the lines to add information. Some branches may split into additional decision alternatives or outcomes. You can also â€Å"bend† branches so that the lines line up horizontally. These techniques make keeping track of alternatives easier. (See figure 2. 1. 1) Label each branch with the decision and its associated investment cost. Write that the smoke and fire detector will cost (-$100,000) to develop. Similarly, write that the motion detector will cost (-$10,000) to develop. Write $0 at the third branch corresponding to the alternative to develop neither product. Tip Show the costs as negative values since they represent a â€Å"preliminary loss. Any future gross revenue will be offset by costs. Showing costs as negative values simplifies the calculation of payoff. Figure 2. 1. 1 The root node is the small square at the left. Branch lines emerge from the root towards the right. Each branch represents one decision alternative. 4 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 1. 2 Chance outco mes In the Really Big Ideas scenario each product development effort can have one of two outcomes: each project can either succeed or fail. Draw a small circle, or chance node, at the end of the branch for the smoke and fire detector. Draw a chance node at the end of the branch for the motion detector. From each chance node draw two branches towards the right; one branch represents success and the other represents failure. Label the branches accordingly. Figure 2. 1. 2 Chance nodes, shown as small circles, lead to two or more possible outcomes. Draw each outcome as a branch from the chance node. 2. 1. 3 Endpoints and payoffs You can now complete all the branches with endpoints, since there is no further branch information to represent. Draw a small triangle ( ) at the end of each branch to represent the endpoint. Write the payoff value at the endpoint. In business applications the payoff is usually a monetary value equal to the anticipated net profit, or return on investment. Net profit (or net loss) is the difference between the investment cost and the total revenue. A positive value indicates a net profit, while a negative value indicates a net loss. In other words, if revenue exceeds investment, then the effort is profitable. Otherwise the effort is a net loss, or a breakeven result if the payoff is zero. For Really Big Ideas, a successful smoke and fire detector project will earn $1,000,000 in gross revenue. The resulting net profit therefore equals the sum of the gross revenue and the investment cost. Recall that cost can be represented as a negative number. The calculation is therefore $1,000,000 + (-$100,000) = $900,000 net profit, or payoff. Write $900,000 at the end of the branch for success of the smoke and fire detector. 5 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals However, if the smoke and fire detector project is not successful, then no revenue will be earned and all the investment will be lost. The calculation for this event is $0 + (-$100,000) = (-$100,000), a loss or negative payoff. Write (-$100,000) at the end of the branch for failure of the smoke and fire detector. Perform a similar calculation for the success and failure payoffs for the motion detector. Your results should show a $290,000 payoff if successful, and a (-$10,000) payoff (a loss) if it fails. Write these values at the endpoints of their respective branches. The payoff for the decision branch to not develop either project is simply $0. See figure 2. 1. 3. Figure 2. 1. 3 Use endpoints, shown by small triangles with one point connecting to the branch, to indicate that there are no further outcomes or decisions to consider. Write payoff values for each terminated branch to the right of the endpoints. This concludes the basic structure of the decision tree for the Really Big Ideas alternatives. We can now incorporate the likelihood of success and failure and use that to analyze the decision alternatives. 6 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 2 Incorporate uncertainty (outcome probability) You can now incorporate the relative outcome probability, or uncertainty, associated with each chance event. You can express probabilities as percentages or as decimal fractions.